May 3, 2015

Starwood on the Block?

I've been a huge fan of Starwood for a long time.  In 2003, I worked at the W San Diego for a summer.  In 2004, I picked up my first Starwood Preferred Guest Amex card.  I've been an SPG Platinum for 5 out of the last 10 years and I became a lifetime Gold SPG member last year after 250 nights in Starwood properties.  I've also been a "HOT" (Starwood's ticket symbol) investor a handful of times over the last 10 years.

One year "HOT" chart

In their earnings release last week, Starwood announced that they're "exploring strategic alternatives" which is code for "maybe we'll sell the company or buy someone else."  IHG has long been mentioned as a good merger fit.  The stock rose nearly 8% on the news.  There's been a lot going on at the company this year.  Earlier in the year, the company replaced their CEO over growth concerns and announced a spinoff of the timeshare business.

SPG is the best loyalty program in the business and on one hand, it would be a shame for the program to be diluted when combined with another program.  On the other hand, expanding the footprint and providing members more access to global properties could make the program even more valuable.

Since I tend to redeem my SPG points for higher end properties, the best outcome is likely for Starwood to stay independent and continue to build out their luxury property pipeline.  But from an investor perspective the best outcome is likely a sale.

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